Donald Trump’s plan to invade Mexico, emerging during his administration, proposes sending US special operations to assassinate cartel leaders. This approach could amount to a “soft invasion,” according to some advisers. Although some former military personnel believe that dismantling the cartel hierarchy could be a feasible operation, experts point to the risks of increased violence and a succession crisis within criminal organizations. Moreover, Mexico’s reaction would be hostile, calling this strategy a “movie.” Tensions could also endanger the 1.6 million US citizens living in Mexico, not to mention that any military intervention could have serious repercussions beyond the borders. A consensus is emerging that collaboration with Mexican security forces would be more productive than attempting to eliminate cartel bosses by force. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHeYfavTDY As the relationship between the United States and Mexico once again finds itself at the heart of political debate, the idea of a Trump administration invasion of Mexico is fueling fears and controversy. This plan, which comes amid rising drug cartel violence, could result in a series of military actions targeting cartel leaders. But behind this proposal lies the promise of disaster that could further inflame the region. Let’s dive into what could be a disturbing reality. Drones and Helicopters: A Military Scenario Under Pressure Imagine an MQ-9 Reaper monitoring a convoy of vehicles, supported by helicopters like the MH-6 Little Bird and the UH-60 Black Hawk. This dystopian picture evokes an interdiction operation in which US special forces could act to capture or neutralize cartel leaders. The scene is both fascinating and disturbing, revealing the military might deployed to ensure what could be described as a “soft invasion.”In this domino game, an operation is launched, resulting in targeted raids based on phone data interceptions or cyberattacks. The commandos, moving with alarming speed, could disregard the consequences on the ground, creating an endless cycle of violence. A risky and contested strategy The question now is whether this strategy can actually work. Carolyn Gallaher, a researcher on paramilitary violence, warns that targeting cartel leaders essentially produces a succession crisis characterized by more violence. A dynamic that, instead of solving the problem, could inflame rivalries between factions, as evidenced by the example of the Sinaloa Cartel following the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. A disaster foretold? Trump, by putting forward this plan, seems to be ignoring the lessons of the past. While the idea of eradicating cartel leaders has proven itself in theory, in practice, it has never produced lasting results. Getting to the root of violence and criminal activity requires a much more complex framework than simply eliminating key figures.
is more crucial than ever, with long-term efforts requiring a collaborative approach, rather than a unilateral military assault. Implications that transcend borders Another often overlooked aspect is the impact this operation could have on the 1.6 million U.S. citizens living in Mexico. An escalation of tensions could quickly turn these expatriates into potential targets for retaliatory cartels. Moreover, the idea that this militia could actually enter Mexican territory is an intrusion that will not be taken lightly by the Mexican government, which has already declared that it will not tolerate such an “invasion.” A Path Not to Be FollowedThe political responses to Trump’s action plan, proposed by members of his inner circle, do not stop there. There is talk of military deployments conditional on cooperation with the Mexican government. Former military and intelligence officials are calling for a less aggressive strategy, focused on support and embedding with Mexican forces, as was done during Plan Colombia to combat drug trafficking.
In short, the approach envisaged by Trump could revive painful memories of the conflicts witnessed by the international community in recent decades and raises critical questions about how the United States should approach its relations with its southern neighbors. Military involvement on the scale proposed would only fuel the ongoing cycle of violence, rather than offer a lasting solution.
Primary Objective : Eliminate Mexican cartel leaders. Military Strategy : Send in U.S. Special Forces.Tactics Involved : Targeted assassination of leaders.Anticipated Impact
: Potential increase in violence.
Priority Targets
: HVTs (High Value Targets). Collaboration: Possible tacit support from the Mexican government. Risks : Risk of retaliation against U.S. citizens in Mexico.
Desired Approach
: Merging military operations and political strategy.
Track Record : Past failures of similar operations. Anticipated Consequences : Succession crisis within the cartels.
